Inferring malaria parasite population structure from serological networks

The malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum is characterized by high levels of genetic diversity at antigenic loci involved in virulence and immune evasion. Knowledge of the population structure and dynamics of these genes is important for designing control programmes and understanding the acquisition of immunity to malaria; however, high rates of homologous and non-homologous recombination as well as complex patterns of expression within hosts have hindered attempts to elucidate these structures experimentally. Here, we analyse serological data from Kenya using a novel network technique to deconstruct the relationships between patients' immune responses to different parasite isolates. We show that particular population structures and expression patterns produce distinctive signatures within serological networks of parasite recognition, which can be used to discriminate between competing hypotheses regarding the organization of these genes. Our analysis suggests that different levels of immune selection occur within different groups of the same multigene family leading to mixed population structures

Daily timing of low tide drives seasonality in intertidal emersion mortality risk

Sea level exerts a fundamental influence on the intertidal zone, where organisms are subject to immersion and emersion at varying timescales and frequencies. While emersed, intertidal organisms are exposed to atmospheric stressors which show marked diurnal and seasonal variability, therefore the daily and seasonal timing of low water is a key determinant of survival and growth in this zone. Using the example of shallow coral reefs, the coincidence of emersion with selected stressors was investigated for eight locations around the Australian coastline. Hourly water levels (1992 – 2016) from a high-resolution sea level hindcast (http://sealevelx.ems.uwa.edu.au), were linked to maximum surface solar radiation data from the Copernicus ERA5 atmospheric model and minimum atmospheric temperature observations from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to identify seasonal patterns and historical occurrence of coral emersion mortality risk. Local tidal characteristics were found to dictate the time of day when low water, and therefore emersion mortality risk occurs, varying on a seasonal and regional basis. In general, risk was found to be greatest during the Austral spring when mean sea levels are lowest and a phase change in solar tidal constituents occurs. For all Great Barrier Reef sites, low tide occurs close to midday during winter and midnight in the summer, which may be fundamental factor supporting the historical bio-geographical development of the reef. Interannual variability in emersion mortality risk was mostly driven by non-tidal factors, particularly along the West Coast where El Niño events are associated with lower mean sea levels. This paper highlights the importance of considering emersion history when assessing intertidal environments, including shallow coral reef platform habitats, where critical low water events intrinsically influence coral health and cover. The study addresses a fundamental knowledge gap in both the field of water level science and intertidal biology in relation to the daily timing of low tide, which varies predictably on a seasonal and regional basis

SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics should inform policy

Funding: JM is supported in part by the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases [K01AI122853].It is generally agreed that striking a balance between resuming economic and social activities and keeping the effective reproductive number (R0) below 1 using non-pharmaceutical interventions is an important goal until and even after effective vaccines become available. Therefore, the need remains to understand how the virus is transmitted in order to identify high-risk environments and activities that disproportionately contribute to its spread so that effective preventative measures could be put in place. Contact tracing and household studies in particular provide robust evidence about the parameters of transmission. In this viewpoint, we discuss the available evidence from large-scale, well-conducted contact tracing studies from across the world and argue that SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics should inform policy decisions about mitigation strategies for targeted interventions according to the needs of the society by directing attention to the settings, activities and socioeconomic factors associated with the highest risks of transmission.PostprintPeer reviewe

The effects of symmetry on the dynamics of antigenic variation

In the studies of dynamics of pathogens and their interactions with a host immune system, an important role is played by the structure of antigenic variants associated with a pathogen. Using the example of a model of antigenic variation in malaria, we show how many of the observed dynamical regimes can be explained in terms of the symmetry of interactions between different antigenic variants. The results of this analysis are quite generic, and have wider implications for understanding the dynamics of immune escape of other parasites, as well as for the dynamics of multi-strain diseases.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures; J. Math. Biol. (2012), Online Firs

Analysis of symmetries in models of multi-strain infections

In mathematical studies of the dynamics of multi-strain diseases caused by antigenically diverse pathogens, there is a substantial interest in analytical insights. Using the example of a generic model of multi-strain diseases with cross-immunity between strains, we show that a significant understanding of the stability of steady states and possible dynamical behaviours can be achieved when the symmetry of interactions between strains is taken into account. Techniques of equivariant bifurcation theory allow one to identify the type of possible symmetry-breaking Hopf bifurcation, as well as to classify different periodic solutions in terms of their spatial and temporal symmetries. The approach is also illustrated on other models of multi-strain diseases, where the same methodology provides a systematic understanding of bifurcation scenarios and periodic behaviours. The results of the analysis are quite generic, and have wider implications for understanding the dynamics of a large class of models of multi-strain diseases

Introduction of rubella-containing-vaccine to Madagascar: implications for roll-out and local elimination

Few countries in Africa currently include rubella-containing vaccination (RCV) in their immunization schedule. The Global Alliance for Vaccines Initiative (GAVI) recently opened a funding window that has motivated more widespread roll-out of RCV. As countries plan RCV introductions, an understanding of the existing burden, spatial patterns of vaccine coverage, and the impact of patterns of local extinction and reintroduction for rubella will be critical to developing effective programmes. As one of the first countries proposing RCV introduction in part with GAVI funding, Madagascar provides a powerful and timely case study. We analyse serological data from measles surveillance systems to characterize the epidemiology of rubella in Madagascar. Combining these results with data on measles vaccination delivery, we develop an age-structured model to simulate rubella vaccination scenarios and evaluate the dynamics of rubella and the burden of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) across Madagascar. We additionally evaluate the drivers of spatial heterogeneity in age of infection to identify focal locations where vaccine surveillance should be strengthened and where challenges to successful vaccination introduction are expected. Our analyses indicate that characteristics of rubella in Madagascar are in line with global observations, with an average age of infection near 7 years, and an impact of frequent local extinction with reintroductions causing localized epidemics. Modelling results indicate that introduction of RCV into the routine programme alone may initially decrease rubella incidence but then result in cumulative increases in the burden of CRS in some regions (and transient increases in this burden in many regions). Deployment of RCV with regular supplementary campaigns will mitigate these outcomes. Results suggest that introduction of RCV offers a potential for elimination of rubella in Madagascar, but also emphasize both that targeted vaccination is likely to be a lynchpin of this success, and the public health vigilance that this introduction will require

Genealogical typing of Neisseria meningitidis

Despite the increasing popularity of multilocus sequence typing (MLST), the most appropriate method for characterizing bacterial variation and facilitating epidemiological investigations remains a matter of debate. Here, we propose that different typing schemes should be compared on the basis of their power to infer clonal relationships and investigate the utility of sequence data for genealogical reconstruction by exploiting new statistical tools and data from 20 housekeeping loci for 93 isolates of the bacterial pathogen Neisseria meningitidis. Our analysis demonstrated that all but one of the hyperinvasive isolates established by multilocus enzyme electrophoresis and MLST were grouped into one of six genealogical lineages, each of which contained substantial variation. Due to the confounding effect of recombination, evolutionary relationships among these lineages remained unclear, even using 20 loci. Analyses of the seven loci in the standard MLST scheme using the same methods reproduced this classification, but were unable to support finer inferences concerning the relationships between the members within each complex

Long-term evolution of antigen repertoires among carried meningococci

Most studies of bacterial pathogen populations have been based on isolates collected from individuals with disease, or their contacts, over short time periods. For commensal organisms that occasionally cause disease, such as Neisseria meningitidis, however, the analysis of isolates from long-term asymptomatic carriage is necessary to elucidate their evolution and population structure. Here, we use mathematical models to analyse the structuring and dynamics of three vaccine-candidate antigens among carried meningococcal isolates collected over nearly 30 years in the Czech Republic. The data indicate that stable combinations of antigenic alleles were maintained over this time period despite evidence for high rates of recombination, consistent with theoretical models in which strong immune selection can maintain non-overlapping combinations of antigenic determinants in the presence of recombination. We contrast this antigenic structure with the overlapping but relatively stable combinations of the housekeeping genes observed among the same isolates, and use a novel network approach to visualize these relationships

Multilocus haplotypes reveal variable levels of diversity and population structure of Plasmodium falciparum in Papua New Guinea, a region of intense perennial transmission

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The South West Pacific nation of Papua New Guinea has intense year round transmission of <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>on the coast and in the low-lying inland areas. Local heterogeneity in the epidemiology of malaria suggests that parasites from multiple locations will need to be surveyed to define the population biology of <it>P. falciparum </it>in the region. This study describes the population genetics of <it>P. falciparum </it>in thirteen villages spread over four distinct catchment areas of Papua New Guinea.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Ten microsatellite loci were genotyped in 318 <it>P. falciparum </it>isolates from the parasite populations of two inland catchment areas, namely Wosera (number of villages (n) = 7) and Utu (n = 1) and; and two coastal catchments, Malala (n = 3) and Mugil (n = 3). Analysis of the resultant multilocus haplotypes was done at different spatial scales (2-336 km) to define the genetic diversity (allelic richness and expected heterozygosity), linkage disequilibrium and population structure throughout the study area.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Although genetic diversity was high in all parasite populations, it was also variable with a lower allelic richness and expected heterozygosity for inland populations compared to those from the more accessible coast. This variability was not correlated with two proxy measures of transmission intensity, the infection prevalence and the proportion multiple infections. Random associations among the microsatellite loci were observed in all four catchments showing that a substantial degree of out-crossing occurs in the region. Moderate to very high levels of population structure were found but the amount of genetic differentiation (<it>F_ST</it>) did not correlate with geographic distance suggesting that parasite populations are fragmented. Population structure was also identified between villages within the Malala area, with the haplotypes of one parasite population clustering with the neighbouring catchment of Mugil.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The observed population genetics of <it>P. falciparum </it>in this region is likely to be a consequence of the high transmission intensity combined with the isolation of human and vector populations, especially those located inland and migration of parasites via human movement into coastal populations. The variable genetic diversity and population structure of <it>P. falciparum </it>has important implications for malaria control strategies and warrants further fine scale sampling throughout Papua New Guinea.</p

Bacterial microevolution and the Pangenome

The comparison of multiple genome sequences sampled from a bacterial population reveals considerable diversity in both the core and the accessory parts of the pangenome. This diversity can be analysed in terms of microevolutionary events that took place since the genomes shared a common ancestor, especially deletion, duplication, and recombination. We review the basic modelling ingredients used implicitly or explicitly when performing such a pangenome analysis. In particular, we describe a basic neutral phylogenetic framework of bacterial pangenome microevolution, which is not incompatible with evaluating the role of natural selection. We survey the different ways in which pangenome data is summarised in order to be included in microevolutionary models, as well as the main methodological approaches that have been proposed to reconstruct pangenome microevolutionary history